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Business plan of creation light training aircraft Su-39.
for OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Content.
1.Main position .............................................. ......................... 3
2. General information about the program .............................................. ............ 3 2.1. The main objective of the program ............................................... ............. 3 2.2. Program Objectives ................................................ ........................ 3 2.3. Composition Program ................................................ ........................ 3 2.4.Stages of program .............................................. ............................ 3
3. Product Information ............................................... ..................... 4 3.1.Purpose ............................................... ..................................... 4 3.2.Overview of the aircraft .............................................. .......................... 4 3.3. Key Features ................................................ ........... 5 3.4. Special features and quality of basic consumer .............................................. .. 5 3.5. Product life cycle and its development trends ............... ... .............................. .................... 9 3.6. Price of products ................................................ ........................ ... 9
4. Marketing ................................................. ................................... 11 4.1. Analysis of market situation and market strategy on the domestic market .................................... 11 4.2. The analysis of market conditions on foreign markets .......................... 12 4.3. Forecast changes in market situation and market strategy ............................................... ....................... 12
5. Funding for the project ................................................ ............. 14 5.1. Funding requirements of the ROC development and production .............................................. .... 15 5.2. Payback period of investments ............................................... . 15
6. Risk Analysis ................................................ .............................. 18 6.1. Political Risks ................................................ .................. 18 6.2. Technical and technological risks ....... ... ... ... ... ... ............... 18 6.3. Finance from marketing, economic and commercial risks .................. 19 6.4. Force majeure risks .............................................. ................. 19
7. Applications ................................................. ................................ 20
1. Summary. Ownership, legal status, the system of responsibility of the parties, as well as the contributions of participants in the project will be defined in the General Agreement of project financing, to enter into force upon signature.
2. General information about the program.
2.1. The main objective of the program.
Creation of a competitive training and initial training complex aerobatic training flight crews.
2.2. Objectives of the program.
providing initial training of flight crews to maintain flying skills in combat units gain 20% (1,000 aircraft), the lungs of the world market by 2010 TCB godu.obespechenie high profitability of the project and the payback period of R & D costs no more than 3 years after the start of deliveries of production aircraft
2.3. The composition of the program.
creation of light piston trainer based on the new generation of aerobatic SU-29
2.4. Stages of the program.
2.4.1 . Stages of the program trainer.
For development and testing of fusion of Su-39 is required to build: - 2 airframe for static testing and resource; - 2 flight pattern. Steps: months (from start of work) - End of OCD ............................................... .................................... 6 - Construction of the first flight model ............................................. ...... 12 - Carrying out flight tests, obtaining pre-trial detention .......................................... 15 - Pre-production and release of the first 10 production aircraft .. 18
3. For information about the products.
3.1. Purpose.
The Su-39 is a light piston trainer for initial training (CIT). By his high flying and technical characteristics of the Su-39predstavlyaet a new generation of fusion, in contrast to the existing TCB allows it to maintain the flying skills of the flight of combat units.
3.2. Description of the aircraft.
The Su-39 is created based on the aerodynamic, design and technological solutions certified Su-29 is its further development. CF Su-39 is distinguished from the Su-29. The fuselage has no power of metal trusses, made under the scheme operates with monocoque skin. All cladding and the main load-bearing elements are made from high-resource framework of composite materials using advanced technologies. In a double cab rear seat trainer stands on 200 mm to improve visibility. Both seats are equipped with a radically new, unparalleled in the world escape system ATP-94. Wing of the Su-39 has an asymmetric profile and vysokonesuschy equipped slotted flaps. On the wing assemblies for the installation of the suspension of bomb, rocket and small arms and external fuel tanks. The Su-39 has a retractable tricycle landing gear with the front wheel. In addition to the basic piston engine M14P, Su-39 can be equipped with engines, modifications to the base engine in the power range 260-400 hp, rotary-piston and piston aircraft engines and diesel power to 450 hp Avionics provides flight operations day and night, and adverse weather conditions, implementation of the simulator mode in the air and on land.
3.3. The main characteristics.
Normal takeoff weight, kg ............................................. ............. 1300 Maximum takeoff weight, kg ............................................. ......... 1500 Maximum payload, kg ............................................. ..... 200 Maximum speed, km / h - Near ground ............................................... ............................................. 370 - At an altitude of 3000-4000 m ........................................... .......................... 360 Cruising speed, km / h .......................................... ........ 320 The maximum allowable speed in km / h ......................................... 500 Service ceiling, m .............................................. 4000 ................... Landing speed, km / h. ........................................... ..................... 130 The length of run, m .............................................. ............................ 200-250 Path length, m. ............................................. ........................... 200-250 Operational range with 5% residual fuel, km ........................................... .................. 1500 Maximum operating load ............................ 12 / -10 The maximum flight duration on fuel with a 5% residue, h ......................................... ............ 8
3.4. Features and basic consumer quality.
CF Su-39 has a number of fundamental differences from the existing TCB. • Security - Highly reliable escape system ATP-94, which has reduced to three times the optimal time for rescue to 0.2.
The Su-39 has a retractable tricycle landing gear with the front wheel. In addition to the basic piston engine M14P, Su-39 can be equipped with engines, modifications to the base engine in the range of 260-400 hp output, the rotary-piston and piston aircraft engines and diesel power to 450 hp Avionics provides flight operations day and night, and adverse weather conditions, implementation of the simulator mode in the air and on land.
Multifunctionality.
CF Su-39 is created as a multipurpose aircraft capable of perform the following tasks: - Initial training; - Maintenance crews flying skills in combat units; - The training and combat aircraft (with additional equipment external hosts suspension arms and simple sighting equipment);
Low cost of development.
CF Su-39 is created based on certified aerobatic aircraft Su-29. It uses worked-out aerodynamics, basic technology prototype, as well as great experience and a high, internationally recognized level of the company-developer. All this, as well as forms of organization of the design process on the basis of modern computer technology will provide high quality and low cost of the project development within a specified time.
3.5. Product life cycles and trends of its development.
Due to the high performance of the Su-39, incorporated in the design modifications, as well as potentially large volume of demand for low-dimensional fusion of high flying and technical characteristics of the fusion program of the Su-39 will have a long life cycle. The term exit the aircraft on the market is expected in 2.5 years, which is consistent with the term of the development of production and output at full capacity (200 aircraft per year) production plant. Payback on R & D and commercial production of the Su-39 is expected to: a 3 year registration on sales of less than 105 units only in the foreign market, a 4 year of release on sales of no more than 220 aircraft in the sale of the domestic market. Sustainable profits from sales of the Su-39 can be expected until 2008.
3.6. Price of the product.
CF Su-39 on its flight characteristics and functionality of the onboard equipment is close to CNF turboprop and turbojet engines, while having a dimension of light piston-engined trainer. Consequently, the price CNF Su-39 can range in price from light piston-engined trainer to trainer with turboprop engines. Forecast of the export price CNF Su-39 is based on the analysis of specific price indices of the class trainer. Given the objective of the international market of light aircraft, to the initial reduction of export prices up to 80% of the global average for the analogs, which is 430 thousand U.S. dollars. In the domestic market price CNF Su-39 is determined by the rate of return is 20% and with 374 thousand U.S. dollars, translated at the current value of the dollar published by the Central Bank of Russian Federation. For the initial flight training organizations in the price of a simplified version ROSTO aircraft can be reduced to $ 200 thousand.
4. Marketing.
4.1. Analysis of market situation and market strategy on the domestic market.
In accordance with the scheme of pilot training, based on three types of aircraft, the customer identified the need for the domestic market in a light trainer for the initial preparation in an amount of 1,500 aircraft (Air Force High School - 300 aircraft, height - 1,200 aircraft), and there is a need to use the aircraft in combat units to maintain the flying skills. In addition, there is interest in this type of aircraft for use as patrol, connected to the border troops, the Army, the Interior Ministry. Air Defense Forces are considering buying a lightweight aerobatic trainer for additional training. Thus, the additional domestic market is estimated at 300-500 aircraft. The total domestic market will make 1800 - 2000 aircraft. As competitors CF Su-39 are considered mild Yak- 18T, Yak-52 Yak-54M and Il-103. Yak-18T and Yak-52 are the older types of aircraft with a small share (less than 2000 hours) and the average standard maneuvering characteristics. Yak-54M is a modified two-seat aerobatic Yak-54 and has a traditional all-metal aircraft assigned resource (2,000 hours). IL-103 is a more modern version of the multi-Yak-18T and has imported engine. Military training tasks for the IL-103 are the minority. It has a relatively low maneuvering characteristics. Life - up to 5000 hours. In our competitive team trainer Su-39 differs fundamentally new approach to the ideology of light fusion: the combination of high maneuverability characteristics, allowing you to perform tasks more aerobatic training in combat units, and the lowest life cycle cost due to the composite airframe, which has 10,000 hours of resource. Pledged modification of basic Su-39 trainer, including: - additional equipment nodes suspension arms and aiming borudovaniem; - Providing a package of measures increasing survivability (including booking cabs); - Installation of search and patrol equipment; - Installation of on-board computer-training complex BKTK, - Installation of air diesel DR-450 will further attract new customers from the military and civilian sectors, and make multi-purpose lightweight trainer Su-39 base light training aircraft.
4.2. The analysis of market conditions on foreign markets.
Trainer aircraft of various classes make up a significant portion of the park's leading military aviation around the world. In developing countries the number (including fusion, capable of solving military tasks) even exceeds the number of combat aircraft. Currently, the Air Force more than 140 countries (excluding CIS countries) is more than 15,000 trainers and combat-capable aircraft. Of these, about 7,000 aircraft are equipped with piston or turboprop engines and are used for the initial and primary flight training. However, about 80% of world fleet trainers and UBS has a shelf life of more than 10 years. Within this group of about 75% of aircraft operated for over 20 years. Given the degree of moral and physical aging, as well as the average maximum life trainer, it can be concluded about the objective needs replacing in the next few years thousands of training planes.
4.3. Forecast changes in market situation and market strategy.
Preliminary estimates show that between 1994 and 2000 only due to the development of the resource will need to replace about 2,300 aircraft, and since 2000 in 2010 - still about 2,700 aircraft. Among CF lung, to be replaced by the development of a resource, include the following types of aircraft: - Foreign (T-41 T-34 A, B, "Cessna" 152,172,337, T-6, 2-42); - Domestic, including the license (Yak-18, Yak-52). Thus, in the next 15 years the world market capacity CF Su-39 is estimated at about 5,000 aircraft. However, the market is divided and governed by the laws tough competition. In assessing the capacity market the Su-39 made the following assumptions. 1 . Low capacity in the market for advanced aircraft industry (USA, Britain, France, Germany, China, Japan), as well as in producing lightweight trainer, licensed or are developing their own (Chile, Finland, Switzerland, Brazil, Spain, Poland). 2. Inability to supply to countries subject to a UN arms embargo on deliveries of weapons and dual-use technologies (Iraq, Libya). 3. The perversity of the supply of aircraft in the country, unable to fulfill international obligations due to insolvency of the economy (Afghanistan, Angola, Somalia, Albania, etc.). In addition, more than 25 countries in addition to those listed have a scientific and industrial base, allow you to create your own trainer with piston and turboprop engines. These countries are considering programs to develop new fusion as an important step in developing its own aircraft industry and, therefore, aim to purchase domestic production of TCB. It should also be noted that a number of developing countries are dependent on issues of policy voennotehnicheskoy highly developed countries (USA, UK, France), competing with Russia. As a result, market research, conducted jointly with SIC 30 CRI Defense Ministry, identified the potential buyers of the country-fusion of the Su-39. European countries: Ireland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Greece, the Baltic countries - about 80 aircraft. The Middle East: Egypt, Jordan, Syria - 200 aircraft. Southeast Asia: Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore - 250 aircraft. Africa: Kenya, Madagascar, Mali - 80 aircraft. South America: Argentina, Colombia, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay -100 aircraft. Neighboring countries - 100-150 aircraft. Based on the foregoing, the potential foreign market for pulmonary CF Su-39 is estimated at 450-500 aircraft in the year 2000 and 300-350 aircraft after 2000. In this case refers to replacement of light fusion of initial training (Yak-18, T-41 T-34 A, B, "Cessna" 152.172), with no weapons. For economic reasons, most countries have become trainer, suitable for the solution of certain missions.Therefore, almost all the export options for pulmonary CF, currently offered on the world market have underwing suspension units and simple sighting equipment. Combat-capable modification of the Su-39 will increase the supply of 100-150 units in the year 2000 and approximately as much - until 2005. Despite the existence of objective challenges the world market of light TCB, market research confirms the reality of CF lung export Su-39 at the proposed amount. The advantages of fusion of the Su-39 over foreign counterparts: - High security; - High flexibility and ease of flight; - Simple, reliable and high-resource design; - Simple and cheap operation; - Low life cycle cost; - Low export price, as well as extensive experience JSC "Sukhoi" in the creation of military aircraft the world level, its foreign supplies and maintenance, in addition, experience in certification of composite aerobatic aircraft Su-29 and sales of sports Su-26 Su-29, Su- 31 in the U.S. and many other countries - this is the necessary components of success. The presence of unloaded capacity, the added fusion of the Su-39, to realize the high rates of production and promotion of the global market.
5. Funding for the project.
The total cost of the ROC and the serial production of Su-39 trainer will make 8.38 million dollars. Stage launch the plane in a series designed for 1.5 years, is very expensive, requires a critical organizational and technical measures and rhythmic funding.
5.1. Funding requirements of the ROC and the serial production .
Investment in R & D and development of production would amount to years: 1995 2378 U.S. $ thousand 1996 3852 U.S. $ thousand 1997 2150 U.S. $ thousand Total 8380 U.S. $ thousand In this case the cost of outsourcing will be: - Development BKTK (in the volume of OCD ).......................... 1600 thousand USD - Completion of the system Emergency ejection ................................ U.S. $ 500 thousand - The cost of completion of the program the engine RAP ............................................... ....... 300 thousand dollars - Development and testing of the chassis ................................. 300 thousand dollars - Other expenses ............................................... .......... 300 thousand dollars Total ................................................. ........................ 3,000 USD
5.2. The payback period of investment.
Upon the sale of aircraft within the country at a price of 374 thousand dollars the expected revenue from the project through 2008 will amount to 50 810 thousand U.S. dollars. While net profit firm - the distributor will be supplied by the end of 1997, and the payback of the project comes in the fourth year of release, ie In 1999, after which the revenue from the project is determined only by the difference between sales and production costs. When selling the aircraft only for export at a price of 430 thousand dollars U.S. expected revenue from the project through 2005 will amount to 118 516 thousand U.S. dollars. While net profit firm - the distributor will be supplied by the end of 1996, and the payback of the project comes on the third year of production, ie In 1998, after which the revenue from the project as determined solely by the difference between sales and production costs. The distribution of funding and profits from the project Su-39 the sale within the country and abroad is presented in the table.
Subject to the simultaneous production and sale of a total program for internal and external market payback comes in the third year of issue, ie in 1998.Moreover, the total expected revenue from the project by the end of 2008 amount to 169 326 thousand U.S. dollars.
6. Risk Analysis.
World history of financial activity in the area even slightly - or be noticeable by its largest project confirms the inevitability of the various investment risks.Moreover, the amount of future income can be directly proportional to the magnitude of risk that is especially true for short-cycle projects. Srednetsiklovyh for high-technology projects, which include the project in question TCB Su-39 is generally characterized by a moderate balance of risks and benefits, explained in this case by the type of aviation firms with high stability, continuity and conservatism necessary parts of its scientific and industrial base and methods for development work. The following are the alleged key risks and how to investor compensation.
6.1. Political risks.
Lack of stability of the economic system of Russia, inflation and the associated banking policy creates a risk for investors. However, the objective course of political developments inside and abroad, the efforts of the Government and the President of Russia suggest focus on creating a favorable investment climate and are already yielding results.
6.2. Technical and technological risks.
Qualitative study of the concept of a TCB project Su-39, held in conjunction with leading research organizations of the military customer (internal market), a large amount of marketing research in foreign markets, as well as a world authority JSC "Sukhoi", based on years of development, production and operation of military and sports aerobatic aircraft, built in including on the basis of composite technology and certified, guarantees a minimal risk in this group as a whole.
6.3. Financial, economic and commercial risks.
Of this group, the risks should be highlighted the risk of deepening the inflation process, which lead to an increase in the value of the ruble investments, delays in the timing of development of investment and production capacity. To minimize the negative effects of inflation and movements in mutual investment is appropriate to maintain all financial accounts in a conventional stable monetary units, or attaching to a stable world monetary unit, such as the U.S. dollar. In determining the total amount of investment in ruble measurement should be considered a reserve, determined by the forecast of inflation is arranged for the funding period.
6.4. Force majeure risks.
These risks are independent of participants in the project and be insured.
Tables
Unit cost indicators CF, Part 1
Moscow 1995
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created 4 January 2004 / 7 october 2006 update |
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